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"If
originals aren't reliable judges of the quality of their ideas, how do they maximize their odds of creating a masterpiece? They come up with a large number of ideas.
Simonton finds that on average, creative geniuses aren't qualitatively better in their fields than their peers. They simply produced a greater volume of work, which gave them higher variation and a higher chance of originality. "The odds of producing an influential or
successful idea,' Simonton notes, are 'a positive function of the total number of ideas generated.'...
In every field, even the most eminent creators typically produce a large quantity of work that's technically sound but considered unremarkable by experts and audiences.
When the London Philharmonic Orchestra chose the 50 greatest pieces of classical music, the list included six pieces by Mozart, five by Beethoven, and
three by Bach. To generate a handful of masterworks, Mozart composed more than 600 pieces before his death at thirty-five, Beethoven produced 650 in his lifetime, and Bach wrote over a thousand. In a study of over 15,000 classical music compositions, the more pieces a composer produced in a given five-year window, the greater the spike in the odds of a hit."
Want to maximize your odds of coming up with an original work? Create a TON of
stuff.